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The Weather Channel’s 13-year veteran and tropical-storm expert Steve Lyons recently spoke at the Hilton Head Island-Bluffton Chamber of Commerce’s annual Hurricane Forum.
We sat down with him for a few questions on his background and some of the myths and facts about hurricanes and Hilton Head Island.
How did you get into meteorology?
I’m from Southern California and I grew up surfing. I got really interested in the wind because it determined what kind of day it would be for waves, but I was also curious because on some days, the waves were 3 feet and others they were 10 feet, but the weather was virtually the same. It got me interested in how storms and waves far offshore could impact my surfing. The same holds true for hurricanes. It’s often what’s happening 2,000 miles offshore that makes an impact on the coast.
I attended the University of Hawaii on a track and field scholarship. I was a pre-med student and took a meteorology course as an elective. I never missed a question on a test or a quiz. I seemed to have an aptitude for it. I still remember the day I called my dad to tell him I was switching majors to meteorology. I went on to get my master’s and my Ph.D.
Are you surprised by the popularity of the Weather Channel and how people are so into the on camera personalities and the weather?
Not really. I think everyone in their own little way is a meteorologist. Everyone has some interest in weather because it affects them every day.
Hilton Head Island hasn’t taken a direct hit from a Hurricane in over 100 years. Some say it’s because we’re “tucked in” along the coast others say we’ve just been really lucky. Which is it?
It’s a little bit of both. You are tucked inland and south Florida and the coast of North Carolina … the Outer Banks area are the two most popular spots for hurricanes. It’s true that New York statistically has a better chance of being hit by a direct storm, but statistics also show that one of these days it will happen.
It’s the luck of the draw and a lot like flipping a coin. The odds are 50-50 every time you flip a coin. It may be “heads” a hundred times, but eventually it will land on “tails.” Each hurricane season is the same way.
What’s the biggest mistake you think people make when it comes to preparing for hurricane season?
Denial. People don’t believe it’s going to happen to them and then they wait until the last minute and buy the wrong things and pay more for them. Those who are hit frequently tend to be the most prepared.
Hurricane preparedness is a lot like wearing a seat belt. I’ve been driving for over 40 years and I’ve never had a wreck, but I put on my seatbelt every single day just in case. I’ve literally done that thousands of times. We should be prepared every year whether or not a storm hits.
The bottom line is that people need to take personal responsibility.
When it comes to Hilton Head Island, what’s the biggest threat to us in terms of hurricane damage? Is it storm surge as some have said?
Hilton Head is very prone to surge, but not as much as many other areas. As a barrier island your threat is always for water coming over the island. That doesn’t necessarily mean from the storm surge. Water rise and water surge are not the same thing. Rain and flooding are the primary culprits.
You don’t need landfall. Everyone’s waiting for a big surge, but that’s not the danger.
The lives lost in the last 15 years along your coastline from storms are due to big waves and rip currents sometimes caused by storms 2,000 miles out that hit the coast three days later. It’s a very common threat. Every season there’s a wave event where someone drowns from rip currents along the coast.
What’s on the horizon for storm prediction? Do you put much stock into the annual hurricane predictions and are we getting any better at determining where hurricanes are headed and how they behave?
We’ve gotten better with the accuracy of the three-day hurricane forecast. We have very little skill in forecasting intensity. We haven’t done of good job of predicting how the intensity of a storm will change, and they change rapidly.
I don’t put much stock in the annual predictions and they don’t have much value for the public. When it comes to hurricanes, all it takes is one.
